Mad Money Machine

Gambling Stocks vs. Rule #1 vs. Cramer vs. IBD

OK, so I took the Gambling stocks (plus I added LVS) and I added Cramer’s opinion. Two popped up on Investor Business Daily’s IBD 100 list today. And I did a Rule #1 calculation on them using MSN’s Analyst’s five-year EPS projection growth and CURRENT PE ratios (note: using current PE ratios in the calculation may not be the best thing to do). I also looked them up in the MagicFormulaInvesting.com site, but none showed up.

It looks like five stocks are under the Margin of Safety (MOS): They are Century Casinos (CNTY) (if you believe 25% growth!), Las Vegas Sands (LVS) (also 25% growth), The Sands Regent (SNDS) (Hey, also 25%), Shuffle Master (SHFL) (hmmmm, 25%?), and Youbet.com (UBET) (ah come on, 25%?).

Two stocks were ranked in the IBD 100 list: LVS ranked #32 with an EPS rating of 98. PENN ranked 67 with an EPS rating of 98.

Cramer’s picks on the gambling stocks:

Full disclosure: I bought some LVS and UBET today.

IBD Free April 24-30

Investors Business Daily will have free access next week, April 24 – 30. Check it out at Investors.com.

MMM-019: Gamblin Man

What are the gambling stocks?
Is it worth gambling on the gambling stocks?
What does Jimmy C have to say about it all?
And… Is this the show where we give away the bull???

Best Value: Get the show FREE THRU ITUNES!

Play show #19 Right Here, Right Now!
[audio:MMM-019.mp3]

• Sell in May and Go Away?
• See Ka. Buy the CD first from eBay.
• I’m reading Trend Following
• Check out the Washington Post article called The Compromise Effect about the lost ticket experiment
• The Gambing and Casino Fund (GACFX) may be rather expensive
• Why search iTunes for Lightning Round when you can search for Mad Money?
• A Double-Bonus Guru Roulette!
• Find all the gambling stocks with this show’s Tool
• be an active Mad Money Machine listener and check out the Action Items

Jim Cramer’s take on some gaming stocks:
SGMS Scientific Games Corp 1/20/6 BUY
HET Harrah’s 2/6/6 SELL – up 9.1%
STN Station Casinos 2/6/6 BUY
ISLE Isle of Capri 2/8/6 SELL
IGT International Game Technology 3/30/6 BUY
SHFL Shuffle Master 3/30/6 BUY
PGIC Mikhon Gaming 3/30/6 SELL
MGAM Multimedia Games 2/14/6 BUY (up 47%) 3/22/6 SELL
PENN Penn National Gaming 4/3/6 BUY
TRMP Trump Entertainment 4/4/6 BUY
CRYP: Cryptologic Featured BUY 4/7/6
FEATURED: SGMS Scientific Games 4/20/6 BUY
SGMS Added to Mid Cap 400

MMM-019.mp3

Portfolio Adjustments

As of yesterday, the Cramer Portfolio was up 15% compared to 11% for the ETF Portfolio. NICE GAINS!

Jim Cramer said on yesterday’s Mad Money that he would rather have Nokia than Motorola. That prompted me to want to make a change to the 2006 Portfolio of Cramer Featured Stocks and replace Motorola (MOT). And wouldn’t you know it, MOT came out a penny short of expectations and WHOMP! the stock drops 7% at the open. I’ll set the time at which to sell the stock at the usual 10:30 this morning.

That will pretty much wipe out the 8% gain that we had in MOT going into today. Shucks!

So…. MOT was in the Technology slot of the 10 slots in the Cramer Portfolio. What to replace it with? Well, our philosophy here at the Mad Money Machine is to pick the stock that Jim has been pounding the table hardest upon most recently. And that stock is….

…Ciena Corporation! (CIEN)

He shouted it both on Real Money and Mad Money in the past few days.

So that’s what we will do. Buy however much we can get with the proceeds from the sale of MOT at 10:30 today.

Hey it’s good to be back home again

So what’d I miss? Just got back from the Ramblin’ Man Southwest USA trip. Looong overnight flights with very little sleep. I’ve got 6 Mad Moneys to watch and get caught up. Then I’ll get YOU caught up!

Oh, and by the way, here’s how the Bull winner selection process will go down: I’ll use Random.org to set up the parameters and then select the lucky number. I will announce the winner’s ID on an upcoming podcast. That person will have 10 days to get back to me by making a comment on the website. Then I’ll get the winner’s postal address and send him or her (for the couple of you “hers”) the ALMIGHTY BULL.

I cannot guarantee that the BULL will confer upon the winner any mystical stock-picking powers in the market, but it wouldn’t hurt to try! If you haven’t signed up to win the BULL, see the link at the right of the home page.

MMM-018: Ramblin’ Man

Short show this week from Las Vegas. Part 1 of 2: Ramblin’ Man. Why stocks are not like gambling. Places that are more interesting and impressive than expected. Next week: Gamblin’ Man.

Listen to Show #18 Right Here, Right Now!
[audio:MMM-018.mp3]

Places visited:
Lake Mead
Hoover Dam
Grand Canyon
Lake Powell
Bryce Canyon
Zion National Park
Las Vegas

Stocks (in the long run at least) are not the same as gambling. I explain why in this short podcast.

MMM-018.mp3

Oh, and while regular FTP wouldn’t work, my web host has a Java ftp client that got around it. Take that The Man!

Well Crud. The Man Clamps Down.

I was hoping to upload a short show today just to keep the streak unbroken, but alas the hotel I where I am staying won’t allow me to do an FTP upload of the size I need to get the show to my server. I may drive out to Panera Bread or somewhere with a more open Internet connection to upload the show. But if I don’t, then we will have to wait until Sunday.

And I paid $11.00 per day for the frustration! See you Easter Sunday. Have a great weekend.

MMM-017: For Cramericans Only!

Cramer, Cramer, Cramer! The Great Bull Giveaway. Going fishing for Cramer stocks that are under water. Cramer-specific Tools. Our Guru thinks the NYT should go paperless. Get two friends to subscribe to the MMM. Listen to this special show NOW! Read more…

Subscribe for Free with iTunes!

or play show 17 right now
[audio:MMM-017.mp3]

I pledge allegience
To the ticker symbols
Of the hyped stocks of Cramerica
And to the companies for which they stand,
One market, on the globe
Inefficient
With profits and dividends for all

On the Menu:
Cream of Cramer Soup
Duck a la Cramer with Cramer Cracked Corn

You should know who our Guru is this time. Here is a link to his New York magazine article. Get rid not only the stock pages, but the WHOLE PAPER.

Watch the video A Conversation With Jim Cramer out at theStreet.com. It mentions YourMoneyWatch.com

How about an eBay copy of Trading with the Enemy? You could buy it for $150, read it, then sell it back on eBay!

The other James J. Cramer books:
Confessions of a Street Addict

You Got Screwed! Why Wall Street Tanked and How You Can Prosper

1st Quarter Results:
ETF Portfolio: Up 9.6%
Cramer Featured Stocks Portfolio: Up 5.6%

(But the first 3 days of the 2nd quarter have been kind to the Cramer Portfolio.>

Wanted to buy some FIZ (but instead bought some KRY).

Read about the mashup between some of Jim’s stocks and Rule #1 value formula in Alerts: Stock Mashup Action Plus More. We estimate the EPS in ten years. We estimate the PE ratio in ten years. We multiply those two. We divide by four (discounts back to the present by 15%). That gets the sticker price. Then we divide by two for the Margin of Safety (MOS) Price.

Goin’ Fishin’ for Cramer Picks:
2/13/6 Motient MNCP.PK A pink sheet stock that has received some “serious” government handouts. It owns more electromagnetic spectrum than anyone except Cingular. -16.5%

2/15/6 Ceradyny CRDN -12.3% CEO appeared – just starting an earnings breakout – 2 thumbs up – way up!

2/16/6 TradeStation TRAD -11.5% Goes to 20!. Closed wednesday at 14.51

2/17/6 Urban Outfitters -14.5% 10K coming out 2nd week of April. Will have just OK numbers. Could see 22-23 before 27. It closed wednesday at 23.09

2/22/6 Luby’s LUB -17.2% They had 2nd quarter profits of 12 cents vs 17 cents expected.
131 unit Texas restaurant chain with huge cash flow. Owns the real estate under 93 stores, making it a value play.

3/6/6 Radvision (RVSN) -11.3% CFO interviewed – had big qtr with CSCO, 3G in EU one thumb up – way up!

3/10/6 Markek Biosciences (MATK) -7%
excellent last qtr – more coming – but was put on sale – pioneers in developing microalgae that fortify food – just got important contract to add product to infant formula for Walmart (WMT) — great entry point after pullback – should “jump through the roof”!

3/17/6 Hershey Company (HSY) -3.5% Said could be a takeover target and would go to 70 or 75.

3/15/6 NICE Systems (NICE) -6.5% sraeli technology co will benefit from the renewal of the Patriot Act – “you want to get tough on terror – you better get NICE!

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OK We’ll Play. KRY Today

Let’s do some speculatin’. Jim says Crystallex International (KRY) is a must own and is the new 2006 stock (formerly Allegheny Technologies ATI already up 80%).

Crystallex will go higher, according to Jim, because of gold prices and because of Hugo Chavez. He says that Wall Street is worried that Chavez will nationalize the company, keeping the stock price down. But that once the state’s Environmental Commission approves its mining operation, it will be clear that it will not be nationalized and will get a big pop. Plus it is the largest, cheapest gold mine around and could be a takeover target. If so, it could go up FOUR TIMES.

So we’re going to buy it in two stages, half right now and half again at 3:30 today. I just bought some myself at $5.40, so that’s the price I’ll use for the first half. This will be the stock that fits into the speculative slot of the Cramer Featured Stocks portfolio of the Portfolio Smackdown.

Uh, nevermind…

Nope, not gonna pay north of $13.80 for FIZ today. We’ll keep looking.

Gettin’ FIZzy wid it

We found our speculative play for the Portfolio Smackdown. Let’s get some of that National Beverage (FIZ) and let it run. Jim Cramer said its Rip It energy drink has room to grow in a fast-growing market.

He showed National Beverages other boring sodas, Shasta and Fanta. Wow, I remember Shasta and Fanta as a kid always had interesting flavors. But they were sort of like the store brand of beverage. Cool for them if they can turn Rip It into something cool.

I’ll pick up as many shares as $ 9,424.34 will get us at 3:30 today, gaming that the Cramer Crackle will melt some by then.