I’ve been lazy about getting the 2007 Lazy Portfolio Results reported to you. But here they are now. You can see the details of the portfolios here.
Ted Aronson’s portfolio did well because it’s equity portion was composed of 25% emerging markets VEIEX which went up 39% in 2007. He only had 6% in Small Cap Value VISVS which went down 7.1%. His overall 13.6% return was pretty good for the year.
Scott Burns’ portfolios came in 2nd and 3rd. His Margarita portfolio has only two equity funds split equally between Total Stock Market VTSMX and Total International Stock Market VGTSX which went up 5.5% and 15.5% respectively. This is the laziest of the lazy portfolios and amazingly did really well last year.
The worst performer? Ben Stein’s "safe" portfolio for retirees that relied on great dividends. But you know, if you didn’t sell, and instead reinvested the dividends, it might not be a bad deal in the long run because those reinvested dividends are buying stocks cheaply right now. As Jeremy Siegel says in his book The Future for Investors, dividends were one of the keys to big returns in stock investments.
On show 96, I mentioned how Guru Peter Schiff’s book could have been written by presidential candidate Ron Paul. How prophetic! Today, Ron Paul has appointed Peter Schiff to be his economic advisor!
January 25, 2008 4:44 pm EST
ARLINGTON, VIRGINIA – Newly appointed Ron Paul economic advisor, Peter Schiff, issued the following statement about Dr. Paul’s proposed comprehensive economic revitalization plan:
“We need a plan that stimulates savings and production not more of the reckless borrowing and consumption that got us into this mess in the first place. Ron Paul’s plan is the only one that amounts to a step in the right direction. If you want meaningful change – for the better that is – Ron Paul is the only candidate capable of delivering it. The others merely promise to continue the failed policies that are at the root of our current economic problems.”
Peter Schiff is president of Euro Pacific Capital Inc, and a frequent guest on CNBC, Fox News, and Bloomberg Television. He is often quoted in major financial publications and is the author of the book Crash Proof.
In the past Peter Schiff said the following of Dr. Paul: “Ron Paul is the real deal, a true statesmen and citizen politician in the traditions envisioned by the framers of our Republic.”
Mr. Schiff is available for interviews regarding Congressman Paul’s economic policies.
You’ll definitely want to click on that last link and read Ron Paul’s Four-Point Plan for economic revitalization. Please tell me, dear reader, what’s not to like in this list? Comment below if you find something. Otherwise, please support the man!
Fri, January 25 2008 » Announcements » Comments Off on Paul Names His Guru
Songs to sell stocks by. Our guru is a permabear.I answer Jim’s question more politely. VOIP. The Great Awakening. Clementines! The Tool I’m using now.
How’s the bear market treating you? Are you taking on too much risk?
Do you know the total return of Index Portfolio 60 from 1 Jan 2000 through 31 Dec 2007? Check it out for yourself at IFA.com’s benchmark your portfolio tool. Or if you’re lazy like me, the answer it 93%. It would take a pretty severe bear market to wipe that out, wouldn’t it?
What’s the deal with my mailman putting the delivery in our garage? Hey, how about ringing the doorbell or something next time?
Our Guru thinks the CPI measure of inflation is bogus. He says the Federal Reserve is unconstitutional. He says save old pennies and all nickels. He says buy gold, international stocks, and keep some cash for buying up bargains. Not dissimilar to what we’ve been saying here. But he says don’t buy mutual funds. Perhaps he doesn’t know the magic of index funds and ETFs. His weekly show can be found here.
I try again to answer Jim’s question about whether this would be a good time to invest in Indexfolio 100 and how to get increased risk levels.
Thanks for your ideas for replacing my FiOS phone service with something cheaper, namely VOIP.
Do you get the feeling that this is a time of Great Awakening?
I encourage you to buy a box of clementines. A wonderful way to get your 5-a-day fruit and veg servings.
I’m using our Tool right now to write this posting.
Now, if you take the Risk Capacity Survey at IFA.com, they will send you a free copy of the 4-CD set entitled An Audio Journey to Tradeless Nirvana. Get yours today!
Music:
I’m Going Down – Bruce Springsteen
I Fall Down – U2
Stand or Fall – The Fixx
Falling Down – Tears for Fears
Don’t Let the Sun Go Down on Me – Clay Aiken
Breakdown – The Alan Parsons Project
The End of the Innocence – Don Henley
It’s the End of the World As We Know It – R.E.M.
Music from music.podshow.com:
ALTA PLAZA – XRAY DOGS
Runaway Train – Under Feather
Email me: feedback at Mad Money Machine dot com, or comment, or Call me on the Mad Money Machine voicemail line at 206-734-4763
So Jim Cramer is saying he’s been calling for this bear market all along. This is pretty funny. Love it when he calls for DOW 14580. Be careful, Cramer is now saying NOT to buy stocks. Let’s go to the tape…
Wed, January 23 2008 » Predictions » Comments Off on Cramer (the Bull) vs. Santelli (the Revealer)
I can play trader just like all the other guys. For example, here is a chart comparing the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) in green versus the VIX, the volatility index in red (sorry color blind guys… the red is the bold line)
For the past two years, when the VIX spiked, it signaled a bottom for the VTI, which proceeded to move on upward at least for the short term. Today the VIX spiked up to 37. Did we bottom out this morning with someone selling their VTI shares at $120? (Most VTI shares traded around $129 today).
For a hint at the next Guru Roulette winner, I’m reading Crash Proof. It is a good summary of what I’ve learned (and passed along to you) up to this point. I wish I had read it when it first came out, it would have saved me a lot of time (and possibly a lot of money).
Tue, January 22 2008 » Predictions » Comments Off on Was that a short-term bottom?
Macbook Tablet? Guru knows recession is here. Jekyll Island. Outliner tool. What is the year-to-year market correlation? Passive government beats active government. Rock Band. Half Life 2.
For example, this chart showing the correlation of one year’s stock returns versus its previous year.
Our Guru “knows” that a recession is coming, so sell.
Yomomma2000 says I need to come out of my dark room and realize what I’ve done (I’ve proved the wisdom of the crowds in the stock market in show 94).
Elaine says read The Creature from Jekyll Island. Here’s a talk that G. Edward Griffin gave. It is definitely worth a listen. Any counter-story to this out there? Why is the Federal Reserve Banking System GOOD?
I like the idea of issuing certificates of ownership for shares in GLD and allowing people to trade these like MONEY.
Tool: I love outliner programs like Natara Bonsai. Anyone know of a full-featured one that is web-enabled? I’d even pay Federal Reserve Points for it!
Jim asks whether this would be a good time to invest in IFA Index Portfolio 100.
Jim also asks how one might create a Index Portfolio 120 or 150 or 200. One could, but I doubt anyone has the stomach to accept the downside risk. Go to IFA.com and at the bottom of the page take a look at the Risk Reward Optimization chart. In the menu, click on item 10. Then click on Portfolio 100 and click on 1 Year.
The MacBook Air was announced. OK, so no Apple Tablet. But I guess you really do need a keyboard after all. I’d rather pay $899 than $1799 though.
I’ve been playing Rock Band and also Half Life 2 from the Orange Box.
Keith recommended that I talk about any long term case studies of people who invested with Index Funds Advisors. IFA now has a sample client’s return that is from an actual client. (Please use Internet Explorer) The amazing thing to note is THEIR CLIENT’S RESULT WAS EXACTLY THE SAME AS THE PORTFOLIO 70’S BENCHMARK.
Dennis wants to know how to get started in investing in an index fund portfolio. For continued guidance, I recommend reading the Diehards forum.
Just like passive investing beats active investing, so too does passive government beat active government. Let the free markets do the work, please! We don’t need a temporary economic stimulus package. We need permanent government downsizing.
I take a raw look a the results of the Lazy Portfolios for 2007. More later — stay subscribed.
Music from music.podshow.com:
ALTA PLAZA – XRAY DOGS
The Pop Culture – DJ Top Shelf
Runaway Train – Under Feather
Email me: feedback at Mad Money Machine dot com, or comment, or Call me on the Mad Money Machine voicemail line at 206-734-4763
Fri, January 18 2008 » Podcasts » Comments Off on MMM-095: Being Clairvoyant
Someone wrote a song for Jim Cramer’s Mad Money. Interesting that his picture never appears in this video. Hey guys, I have the rights to a picture of him if you want one to include one in your video.
hat tip to CrossingWallStreet.com
Thu, January 17 2008 » Announcements » Comments Off on The Ballad of Jim Cramer
“The investor with a portfolio of sound stocks should expect their prices to fluctuate and should neither be concerned by sizable declines nor become excited by sizable advances. He should always remember that market quotations are there for his convenience, either to be taken advantage of or to be ignored.”
Ron Paul did better (but then worse) than expected
Boglehead Contest: Predict the close of the S&P 500 ( I said 1393.65, which was a 5% drop from the price on the day I made the prediction. I was thinking that the market would drop sharply in the first half of the year then rebound, but not quite back to even.)
The Tool this week is like an iPod for books, PDFs, and the web. Here is a place to get free books.
Lazy Portfolio Smackdown results: I’m too lazy to compute them (Yahoo historical quotes isn’t factoring in December dividends yet.)
Results of the Mad Money Machine PUBLIC Portfolio Smackdown. The average of all stock pickers was 5.3%. The VTI was up 5.3%.
I’ve set up another Virtual Stock Exchange game at MarketWatch.com under the id MadMoneyMachine.com2
Even though I don’t like their system, since it is free, I created it anyway. Have fun. It runs through 2009 this time instead of just one year. And you get $1,000,000 in play money instead of just $100,000. And you can only trade 10% of a stock’s volume instead of 100%. And no shorting. Have fun.
Mon, January 7 2008 » Announcements » Comments Off on VSE Game 2008 and 2009
Movies and books. Passport application story. Survivalism. Predictions. Get rid of landline? 2007 Portfolio Smackdown Results. Jim Cramer’s stocks of the year results. Tool. Guru.
Amazon.com: The Creature from Jekyll Island
Subscribe to the Podcast in iTunes