Mad Money Machine

by Paul Douglas Boyer

MMM-032: Stock Pickin Blues (entire show)

The world-premiere of my new song Stock Pickin Blues!

Download this show thru iTunes!

or, if you just can’t possibly deal with that then
Play show 32, right now [audio:MMM-032.mp3]

Stock Pickin Blues

Proudly sponsored by Index Funds Advisors. Take the Risk Capacity Survey and also Benchmark your portfolio.

I picked a day at random between 1 Jan and 31 May 2006 to highlight the results from a specific Mad Money show. The random day that was selected was April 5th. See how Jim’s featured stocks did and also see how the lightning round bullish and bearish stocks would have done. As a reference, the S&P 500 was down 5.6% between April 5th and 18 July.

Recently lower download stats. Three reasons I can think of: 1) People are on vacation 2) People are not interested in stocks and stock shows, or 3) This show is getting too focused on index funds instead of specific stocks.

Our Guru has a book that will help you deal with random happenings.

For our Tool this week, who cares about money anyway? We work to get money to invest in stocks so we can buy more music. For this tool, you won’t need to buy as much music.

THANK YOU for submitting your early money memories! See the comments from show #31 to read all the great early money memories for yourself. Sorry my intro to that segment was drowned out by the music. I was going to fix it but got too lazy.

BOOK GIVEAWAY! I’m giving away yet another copy of Index Funds: The 12-Step Program for Active Investors. Make sure you are registered then simply add a comment to this show that helps me solve the dilemma of my show’s content: What should I talk about on the Mad Money Machine?

Visit our sponsor: Index Funds Advisors

Download the show directly MMM-032.mp3

Music from music.podshow.com:
Stock Pickin Blues – (lyrics by Paul Douglas Boyer mashed up with music from James Connolly’s song Blackbird Blues)
Runaway Train – Under Feather
FUNK IN A – PAT ZELENKA
Basic Blues – Kparx
Basic Blues – Kparx
Basic Blues – Kparx
I Am Not Alone – Rachel Keagy
sitar – ???
Blackheart Blues – Melissa Forbes
Money – Theory in Motion
I Quit Smokin – Feed The Kitty – Studio Z Productions

Stock Pickin Blues
(Lyrics by Paul Douglas Boyer)
Well… I been tryin’ to find another way to make me some money
‘Cause my job ain’t got much pay.
Yeah, been tryin’ to find another way to make me some money
‘Cause my job ain’t got much pay
So, I been foolin’ around in that stock market
Tryin’ to do it Jimmy Cramer’s way

Bought a hundred shares of Mr. Softie
It’s gone down day by day
Then bought a hundred of United Health Group
And I lost about half of it that way
So I calls up Mr. Cramer
To see what he’d have to say

And here’s what he said
He said I want you to sell that Mr Softie
That’s just a house of pain
And I want you to sell UNH
That’s been money down the drain
Then go and buy some Crystallex
You’ll have a golden day

So I mortgaged my house
Auctioned my car
Pawned all my jewelry
Even sold my brand new pair of shoes
And I put everything I owned in the stocks
That Jimmy told me to do
By now you know my story
I’m singin’ the Stock Pickin’ Blues

After all the dust had settled
I started doin’ some readin’
Come to find out pickin’ stocks
Wasn’t what I was needin’
Had to set it and forget it
To try and stop the bleedin’
Ain’t no use tryin’ to beat the market
There’s just too many people competin’
So fellas I got some news
I’m all done now with the Stock Pickin’ Blues

Get your blues turned to green
At the MadMoneyMachine.com

Thu, July 20 2006 » Podcasts

22 Responses

  1. jsmith July 20 2006 @ 9:33 pm

    I’d like to hear you talk about ETFs vs. Mutual funds and when it makes sense to use one vs. the other.

  2. deml247 July 20 2006 @ 9:41 pm

    I have to say the original reason for listening was to see someone do some kind of check against whether Jim’s picks are really valid. I think that once you’ve already shown that he is no expert (even though I like to listen to his podcast for trading and sector insights) hearing his hits and misses is kind of boring after a while.

    You have a great voice and do a good job with media and sound. You’re tools in the crib and guru are great too parts of the show.

    I’d suggest you forgo the Jim analysis, rebrand yourself (get rid of the Mad Money Machine name) and be the podcast that tells people the different styles, techniques, websites, books, etc. for investing. Yes, I agree ETF’s and indexing are great, but don’t be biased and instead show a lot of different topics.

    One thing I find myself doing is clicking along with you. Whether it be to go to Amazon to buy the book (which I just now figured out you have the link on your site), or if I’m checking out IFA, we the home-gammer do like to play along while we listen to your podcast. Thus, why not give us what we want?

  3. doug_ashley July 21 2006 @ 2:26 pm

    Hi Paul,

    The download statistics are probably correlated to inclination to open our brokerage statements (or not). It has been a rough market since May 11… I wish I would have sold in May and gone away.

    In the world of defined contribution retirement plans, it is clear that people are going to need to be more financially savvy and engaged than were our parents. People really need to understand asset allocation, the importance of some international exposure, safe withdrawal rates, and a variety of new financial products as they become available. A show like yours provides a good venue to expose people to things for further study.

    As a young retiree, I am particularly sensitive to risk and have most of my equity positions in mutual funds and ETFs. However, as an investor for over 20 years, I still like the idea of having a chunk of ‘Mad Money’ to keep me engaged in the market. For me, Jim Cramer is entertainment, but you do a great service with the periodic assessment of his stock picking.

    If you should decide to change direction, don’t abandon the MadMoneyMachine.com moniker, you have done a lot to establish it, it does not lock you into any particular structure, and maybe you will occasionally attract the odd Cramer devotee.

    Thanks for all your efforts on the great podcast.. With a job, family, life, etc., I don’t see how you have time for the show and for sleep.

  4. dsfunk July 21 2006 @ 4:44 pm

    Just keep doing your thing. Jim Cramer is a fad, but the knowledge and tips or pointers for the average (no time to do homework) investor is great and much appreciated.

  5. AIMster July 21 2006 @ 6:16 pm

    Hi, Paul,

    Yet another great show. I might be inspired to become a podcaster myself someday. Real Soon Now. Seriously, though, 32 shows so far is a great accomplishment so I’m not surprised to see that you want a navigational compass reading to determine the next course to chart – at least until you want to take the next compass reading! Truth be told I don’t necessarily see stock picking and indexing as being a totally binary either-or situation. One can have both index funds (or closed end funds, or ETF’s) for the bulk of one’s investments and take a flier or two on some specific stocks. The question with stocks is one of timing, imho, do you see yourself as a short-term trader or long-term investor? If you see yourself as a trader, flitting in and out of the market you’re more apt to be burned – on the other hand if you’re willing to hold a diversified group you’ve more time and room to run the ups-and-downs. If you follow Cramer’s general idea of buying into weakness and selling into strength, aka buy low and sell high, regardless of timeframe – then you can have a mad money machine.. On the other hand if you buy and hold dividend-paying stocks, reinvesting the dividends as you go along – you can end up with a pretty good pile of money too. In short, the show can explore various alternatives to get us to the proverbial pot of gold. The Tortise and Hare – even though the tortise may win a particular race – if the hare also gets to the finish line, doesn’t that make him a winner too, if only in a different timeframe? In a marathon getting to the finish line is just as important as the order in which one gets to the finish line. Both strategy and tactics come into play as we fight the battles to win the day, the battle and the war. – Hopefully these and all the other comments will give you a sense for new shows – after all you’re developing an appreciative audience who waits to tune in each week!!

    Best,

    AIMster

  6. dsfunk July 21 2006 @ 6:44 pm

    Another thought for you Paul. I have about 15 to 20 percent of my money in international funds. I’d love to hear your thoughts and/or some of your guru thoughts on current international markets.

  7. Paul Douglas Boyer July 21 2006 @ 10:39 pm

    Whoops, I’ve entered a comment. Does that mean I can win the book. Nah, of course not. And I already have a couple of copies anyway (one I bought and one that is SIGNED by the author 🙂 )

    Anyway… Love your comments so far!!! Keep ’em coming. I’ll remove redundancies in the drawing.

    1. ETFs vs. Mutual Funds: Great topic. Did it a long time ago but it has lots of angles so will pick a new angle.

    2. Re: Rebranding: upon reflection, perhaps the best way is to walk the tightrope of adding a dash of Cramer in every show along with whatever else comes up.

    3. Re: Mad Money: You hit the nail on the head and drove it all the way down into the wood with that one Doug. I think I have an idea…
    Re: Young Retiree. I’d love to talk with you Doug about your situation compared with my situation sometime. We may have more in common than you realize.

    4. Re: Fad: Interesting you’d say that. I’m eager to see if you are right. You may well be and wouldn’t that be interesting.

    5: Re: 32 Shows. Thanks. Yep, I was never sure how many shows I could crank out. Much of my perseverance I owe entirely to the feedback I get from you guys.
    Tortise and Hare is an excellent metaphor!

    6: Re: Int’l Funds: Lovely idea!

  8. yomomma2000 July 21 2006 @ 11:54 pm

    Dear Paul,
    Don’t get discouraged and pack it all in. I look forward to your podcasts!
    Your investment gurus give me something to think about all week. (I’ll just let you read the books and you give us the summary. Ha ha. Like Cliff’s Notes for investors)
    I’m still pondering what mix of funds best mimics the market. I have been giving that a lot of thought.
    Maybe we can talk about bonds too and how critical they are in the market. Ugh. Bonds seem too boring to fool with. But Cramer said they were big in the 80’s. I don’t understand what set of circumstances makes bonds profitable.
    Keep the Cramer discussions. It’s a nice balance to note how he’s doing. Your comments help keep it more real and deflate the myth. (But I still like the guy.)
    I agree it’s fun to listen to info about companies and industries on his Mad Money show, but your very honest assessments of his stock picking abilities help me to listen to the facts and make my own decisions. Isn’t that the whole point?
    I love the tools in the crib and your general comments on the market.
    I also like all the topics that other listeners proposed in the … except don’t rebrand yourself.

  9. Tekneek July 22 2006 @ 5:38 am

    I like the look at Cramer’s record, but also how it isn’t what the entire show is about. The Guru Roulette and Tools in the Crib segments are the best and what makes the show special. The humor and great production elements are just icing on the Mad Money Machine cake. I’ve been listening for a while now and I’ve learned a lot while being entertained.

    I like Cramer, am almost finished reading his books, and do listen to his podcast. Your podcast is crucial for anyone who might think Cramer’s stockpicks are golden.

  10. The Swede July 22 2006 @ 8:14 am

    Hi Paul!

    I am a 25 years old guy from Sweden who has been listening to all your shows, and first I would like to thank you for everything I have learned from you.

    Then over to some comments on the show: I like the fact that your show is entertaining but i listen to it in order to become a better investor. Therefore I love the parts like Guru-roulette and Tools in the Crib. I actually did like your song last show, but the show when the alien-voice said something about Jim Cramer being related to Warren Buffet was just waste of my time.

    I do like the talk about index funds and your sponsor, but i have understood the advantages of index funds by now, so instead of keeping to tell us about how good they are, maybee you could give us nore advice on how to choose index funds and ETFs.

    Jim Cramer does not interest me at all. If he did, then I would listen to his podcast instead, but I like your show much more.

    I would prefer if you totally stopped talking about Jim Cramer and focused more on general investment advise and different investment strategies.

    Keep up the good work and best regards from the town of Lund in the south of Sweden.

  11. phish43 July 22 2006 @ 12:06 pm

    Paul,

    I think you limited us, your listeners, to too few choices in helping with your dilemma. Our choices were:

    1. Show about index funds
    2. Show about specific stocks
    3. Fold up tent

    I didn’t like any of those so I submit a 4th possibility. You can let the show evolve as it has all along. Do not reinvent yourself. One of the many things that keeps me coming back is your ability to come up with new and interesting material every show. I never considered this show to be about Jim Cramer, IFA, specific stock picking or any other limited niche. I believe that your show is about MONEY and that gives you a bunch of flexibility. You have great ideas and encounter very cool websites, tools and books in your travels that I really enjoy following up on and would never have found on my own. If you share something that is not money related (Pandora or Zilla for instance), I don’t care. I REALLY like Pandora I think it is awesome that you brought it to our attention. If you get on a “kick” about index funds for a few weeks, I don’t care either. You believe it is a great way to make money and you were driving the point home. I appreciate that you stand behind what you believe and I also remember that you were recommending IFA before they were a sponsor.

    Maybe you need some ideas. Many good ones have already been submitted. I have a few that I am sure are bad but maybe they will get you thinking. You could talk about how to limit taxes, crazy things rich people do with money, opinions on asset allocation, the top ten grossing touring bands, people who have lost a bunch of money and how that happened, the market oscillator or any other topic that you enjoy talking about. You will only thrive if you continue to be interested. Talk about things that interest you and the rest will take care of itself.

    You should be all set for Guru’s. If you have 0 and 00 in addition to the 18 black and 18 red already selected that gives you 38 pending Guru’s to talk about. If my math is correct that takes you all the way up to show number 70. No problem there…

    I had an idea after listening to #32. One other thing you should do that I think would be quite interesting is to start a new portfolio for the Smackdown. Call it the “Opposite Cramer Portfolio”. It should work exactly the opposite of your existing Cramer Portfolio – when he says to sell something you should buy and when he says to buy you must sell. Maybe that is the best way to pick stocks yet???

    Keep your chin up and don’t do anything drastic. The show needs to evolve and stay fresh but you are already doing that. Long time listeners already know that. I don’t leave for work on Friday without having the podcast on my IPod and I suspect that there others like me. I know it is a bunch of work and I want you to know that I, for one, really appreciate it.

  12. evan July 22 2006 @ 1:09 pm

    I haven’t had much time to put a lot of thought into it but here’s a few things.

    1) Regarding index funds. Definitely got it. Well I already knew it and that’s why my retirement funds are in them. That’s a safemoneymachine.com

    2) So what’s madmoney. To me, it’s that discretionary section of the portfolio where instead of going to Vegas, you try to make more. How do you do it? Should you do it? Fundmental analysis, or technical analysis? Business cycle? Chart patterns? Just tossing stuff out here.

    3) Cramer. I love his show. He cracks me up. Holy cow the book. (Speaking of which, I got my free 12 step book yesterday and my kids went “Holy cow, THE BOOK”, that thing is beautiful, thick, and _heavy_). I found your site after searching up on Cramer because like anything in life, his free advice just can’t be that good and I wanted to get a second opinion. I found it. But, the principles he does stick to, might be worth investigating on this show. Such as doing homework, holding for longer (but how long, Cramer isn’t always the greatest at telling you to sell). You can tell from random comments that he does technical analysis as well.

    4) As others have said, what’s mad money to you. 🙂

    Obviously, it is up to you where you want to take this. Best of luck.

    evan

  13. Pug July 24 2006 @ 11:39 am

    I really like the premise of whether following the advice of Cramer et al will help us get rich. Aside from Cramer, how about looking at some other stock pickers. For example: research that get’s churned out by the wirehouses. I also noticed that Lenny Dykstra has a stock picking column on The Street.com, what’s up with that? What would Joe Kennedy’s shoe-shine boy recommend today?

  14. olivr2 July 24 2006 @ 5:55 pm

    I like the show the way it is. It’s fun to compare how the different profiles perform. Maybe you can add sections on funds and there expense ratio. Also, it would be nice to compare some of the index funds to examples like S&P500. Anyway, keep up the podcasting.

  15. mojojojo103 July 24 2006 @ 6:57 pm

    I like hearing about books you found about investing, personal finance, or anything else that helps us understand how to become better investors. I especially like your lighter side of investing attitude even when the markets are down, there is blood in the streets, and I would even consider going shopping with my wife at Nordstroms rack a better time than following the market. Thats when you know it’s getting bad. I think striking out beyond the mad money and Jim mantra would be interesting. There are a lot of other pundits out there that have horrible picks too when it comes to giving free advice. I.E. the Fox Morning Block they call “The Price of Freedom”. Maybe branch out a little bit and critique some of their comments or stock picks. That Gary the chartman really cracks me up. He never looks at the fundamentals and rarely even knows what the companies do that he charts each week. Maybe take a stab at technical anaylysis and see how that does compared to Cramers picks or index funds. You could delve into the insanity of options and shorting–that could be very funny just trying to make sense of derivatives. Regardless–keep up the good work. I listen every week and look forward to every show.

  16. dylster13 July 24 2006 @ 11:55 pm

    Don’t be discouraged! As Cramer would say, “I need you to stay in the game.” I believe Mad Money is not about investing for the long term. It’s about using that last 5% of your portfolio to capture lightening in a bottle. We all know that index funds beat the pants off of money managers, but they are no fun. Mad Money is the fun part about investing and I don’t want you to forget that! Keep analyzing Cramer’s picks! If you really feel the need to branch out, ETFs are exploding and mutual funds are also another topic which keeps us investors interested. International stocks are another possibility.

    One thing though – often I believe in your analysis of a stock, you buy and hold way too long after Cramer has changed his mind about a particular stock. For instance, your show where you randomly picked a date and analyzed all the metal stocks was at a point where Cramer had become bearish on that sector.

    PS – That mock phone call was the funniest thing on the show yet! Holy Cow! The book! It still cracks me up. Thanks.

  17. asciiadam July 25 2006 @ 6:13 am

    Eventhough, the IFA funds seem leveraged for the highest returns… This show is called “Mad Money Machine”, it should be purposed around the excitement of picking the industries or companies that one feels especially strong about. Risking only a marginal amount of the portfolio.

    The one credit that I can give Jim Cramer is the graph on page 115 of Real Money regarding GDP percentages. When fundamentally analyzing securities, I use that along side the Stock Traders’ Almanac. Then I find an entry point using StockTraders.com. In the last 2 weeks, I would have grossed a risk weighted 4.3% using that system (DVY, VHT, TLT, AL, NPTE).

    Granted that the increased tax penalty and other trading expenses would shrink returns, but I figure that this is the cost of flexibility, of freedom. To invest in whatever, whenever you decide to through some money at the market. It is this dynamic market, this ‘vegas-gambling’ that I crave. The getting 88% return on one trade, one day.

    Possible content:
    you could interview daytrader Trader Mike (tradermike.net) and exchange some ideas regarding funds over daytrading. Might mention other investment vehicles, such as; S&P e-minis or Forex markets (EuroDollar trending down). Both of which have a very high upside when coupled with strong money management.

    I like your podcast, however the reason I listen to it is for the quick and dynamic ways to arbitrage the market into a large profit then get out. For my ‘safe’ investments I listen to Doug Fabian.

    P.S. Here’s a tool in the crib:
    TradingDay.com
    Technical Opinion & Detailed Quote
    -type in a symbol and it will break apart it’s technical analysis, even displaying whether it is wise to be in the trade for very long.

  18. jdogg13 July 25 2006 @ 5:05 pm

    Here are some ideas:

    1. Talk about the various sectors, sector rotation, and the sector ETFs.

    2. Educate your listeners about investments other than stocks such as bonds, options, futures, etc.

    3. Discuss various hedging and risk management strategies for profitable investing.

    4. Discuss the various styles of investing/trading: value, growth, income, momentum, etc.

  19. mallen99 July 26 2006 @ 11:04 am

    I love the funny intros, sound effects etc, mixing in some humor is always good.

    guru roulette has turned into a finance book review which is fine but how bout a version of guru roulette which discusses specific picks by notable gurus which could be from multiple sources such as Barrons, NBR, Motley fool, blogs.

    or maybe a segment discussing blog entries from good financial blogs.

    Also how about an update on the investment challenge, maybe change it to a qtrly event, also I see where marketwatch has a simulator.

    It would be cooll to have an ongoing thread discussing different investment ideas, that maybe could be highlighted each week on the podcast.

  20. Viking133 July 27 2006 @ 6:43 am

    Well, I am trying to remember out of all the shows what stood out for me (been listening since #5).
    1. The Golf skit used to do the Portifolo Smackdown (very creative).
    2. The Meshing of 3 different stratagies (Cramer/ Rule #1/ IBD 100) I still think that it was one of the most constructive items.
    3. The song Stock Blues (that will be a classic)
    4. Books that you talk about (Book Review) (Rule #1)
    5. Zillow.com (had fun with that)
    6. The segment for the beginning investor (Nice simple @ the end of the early shows)
    7. Guru Roulette has grown on me… 🙂

    Overall I look forward to your podcast every week to see what creative thing you have come up with. You make me laugh and smile every week, so keep up the good work.

  21. scottaplus July 28 2006 @ 9:23 am

    Just listened to the show, fine tune Paul! YES I echo many of the sentiments above, keep the show rollin along. My two cents would be to “keep the show real”. We are mostly average people trying to make a buck and build our knowledge about investments, so keep that as your target audience. Please keep an educational slant on things and bring up issues that we will have to deal with like TAXES and STRATEGIES and TOOLS. I have alreaday learned so much from you! Stay with Cramer, keep critiquing him and the other Gurus out there…….from a novice point of view it is hard to understand if they are scamming us or if we can get some good infromation from them. As a novice invester I tend to have tunnel vision and you bring up points that I need to pay attention to as I evolve. Thanks again!

  22. Bear4Now July 31 2006 @ 12:59 pm

    In your recent show, STOCK PICK’N BLUES, you asked for suggestions asked for content suggestions.

    IMO, attempting to pick upward winners in a long term bear market will provide results that are strikingly similar to random chance. Even with a Buffet style value oriented approach, some will win big, some will lose big, and the overall results will be strikingly close to the overall results of the broad indexes.

    The general direction of the market over many months is downward, resulting in PE compression among solid companies & substantial permanent loss of capital in the popular speculative stocks/ sectors. If one must invest, a sensible approach might be to:

    1) Identify the price trends of specific market sectors. (Mostly downward)

    2) Choose ETF style funds which permit a simple 1% inverse short exposure to those sectors which are weakest, or which should be weakest given the approaching ’07 reccession. (Thus avoiding company specific risk, which can be either greatly up or down, depending on random chance.)

    Many investors spend too much time reading company headlines and not enought time reading thoughtful, serious (academic level) books attempting to deal with the economic/ political/ social/ historical aspects of investing. As a result, decisions are based on the limited information provided by major media content providers, whose real goal is keep you hooked and listening rather than providing an education which can lead to independent thought.

    My content suggestion:

    Tackle serious investment books on air, chapter by chapter, discussing the ideas. Nassir Talib’s book is a great place to start. Another book suggestion: THE ANATOMY OF BEAR MARKET BOTTOMS, which covers 100 years of market history and examines in depth the characteristics one should look for when the general stock market will rise. (Hint: we’re a LONG ways from that point.)

    Keep up the good work