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January 5th, 2010 at 1:23 pm
The Gift Card Store. Lazy Portfolios analyzed. Cheap Gas! 2010 (the movie). The tax on gold. End the Fed.
MMM-172: The Year We Make Contact [31:41m]:
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Topics in this week’s show include:
- Bruce Cockburn’s Making Contact
- How about a gift card to the Gift Card Store?
- Lazy Portfolios reviewed for the past 3 years
- Risk vs. Return on select lazy portfolios
- Game: Race for the Galaxy (#12 at Boardgamegeek.com) Very Fun!
- the tax on gold
- Change for $6.18
- Inspectd.com gone bye-bye
- Foliodex.com gone bye-bye
- Tool: Cheap Gas! on the iPhone
- A trillion is a million million
- End the Fed. Read it.
- Check out MoveYourMoney.info
- IFAradio.com is a new podcast with the same guys from Sound Investing podcast.
- 2010: Odyssey Two and 2010 (The Year We Make Contact)
- I hope you have a happy… (2010 and twenty teens.) [Audio file cut off a couple of seconds early.]
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January 4th, 2010 at 6:59 pm
Here is a chart that sort of goes with the previous posting’s table. I have taken just a few of the portfolios of interest and computed their standard deviation for the time period of three years. Then plotted their ANNUALIZED return on the Y axis vs. their annualized standard deviation along the X axis.
Remember that you’d want your portfolio to be at the top left of the chart because their you get the higher return with the lower risk.
So for the three year period from 2007 through 2009 the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio showed the best return and the least risk of any of the featured lazy portfolios. More analysis to come…
January 4th, 2010 at 1:24 pm
Here’s an early look at how the professional Lazy Portfolios have performed for the past 3, 2, and 1 years ending 31 December 2009. These are cumulative returns, with dividends reinvested. Data comes from Yahoo! Finance into my spreadsheet. There may be errors in the data. Some funds may not yet have reported dividends for 2009, for example. I have sorted the results by the 3-year performance.
| Lazy Portfolio |
3 years |
2 years |
1 year |
| Permanent Portfolio Fund (PRPFX) |
21.7% |
8.3% |
18.2% |
| Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio ETFs |
20.1% |
4.6% |
7.5% |
| Bogle Tax-Sheltered |
2.7% |
-5.9% |
16.0% |
| Scott Burns’ Couch Potato Portfolio |
1.3% |
-6.8% |
18.4% |
| FundAdvice Ultimate Buy & Hold |
-2.4% |
-9.7% |
19.2% |
| Scott Burns’ Six Ways from Sunday Portfolio |
-3.1% |
-12.1% |
23.3% |
| Scott Burns’ Margarita (also Andrew Tobias) Portfolio |
-3.8% |
-13.0% |
23.3% |
| Andrew Tobias’ Lazy Portfolio |
-3.8% |
-13.0% |
23.3% |
| Ted Aronson’s Lazy Portfolio |
-3.9% |
-14.3% |
33.3% |
| William Bernstein’s No Brainer Cowards Portfolio |
-4.4% |
-8.6% |
22.8% |
| Bill Schultheis’ Coffeehouse Portfolio Vanguard |
-4.6% |
-7.4% |
19.0% |
| Scott Burns’ Five Fold Portfolio |
-4.9% |
-10.1% |
20.7% |
| John Wasnik’s Nano Investment Portfolio |
-5.8% |
-10.1% |
19.9% |
| Frank Armstrong’s Ideal Index Portfolio |
-7.2% |
-12.3% |
22.3% |
| William Bernstein’s Basic No-Brainer Portfolio |
-7.9% |
-12.9% |
19.9% |
| David Swensen’s Lazy Portfolio |
-8.1% |
-12.6% |
23.0% |
| Bill Schultheis’ Coffeehouse Portfolio Three ETF |
-8.4% |
-12.7% |
19.5% |
| Bill Schultheis’ Coffeehouse Portfolio ETFs |
-8.5% |
-9.0% |
17.5% |
| Scott Burns’ Four Square Portfolio |
-11.0% |
-14.6% |
24.5% |
| Jim Lowell’s Sower’s Growth Portfolio |
-11.8% |
-19.1% |
33.3% |
| Merriman Vanguard Equity |
-15.9% |
-20.9% |
32.4% |
| MMM SMILER Funds |
-16.1% |
-20.1% |
37.2% |
| IFA Index Portfolio 100 Bright Red |
-18.7% |
-20.7% |
33.4% |
| MMM Do It Yourself Funds |
-17.5% |
-20.4% |
33.5% |
| MMM Do It Yourself ETFs |
-19.5% |
-21.2% |
31.6% |
| Ben Stein Retirement |
-34.0% |
-24.3% |
19.7% |
| Ben Stein 2007 |
N/A |
-16.2% |
26.9% |
| WisdomTree |
N/A |
-21.9% |
28.0% |
| (Results computed with data from Yahoo! Finance. IFA Data comes from ifa.com.) |
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Here are some takeaways from the table:
- These portfolios have different objectives, different asset class mixtures, and different risk profiles. Simply comparing them on historic returns is not a way to pick one for an investment.
- Therefore, a better way to view these would be to look at them on a return vs. risk graph where risk is defined as the standard deviation of the portfolio. Then we could see at a glance which portfolio has the more desired “top-leftedness” (meaning it had higher return for its level of risk).
- Only two of the portfolios invested in gold, the two top performers. Future results may vary.
- I believe most funds have no load.
- I changed the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio cash holding from VFISX to SHY which results in a slightly lower return (about 1% less). I would prefer to hold it in a money market fund, but Yahoo! Finance does not give me historical returns for them.
- Remember, this table probably has errors!
December 16th, 2009 at 4:54 pm
Tiger’s Song. Tool: EzBacktest. Scary movies. Impact of inflation on stock prices. Improved Permanent Portfolio? Paul Samuelson.
MMM-171: Last Show of the Decade [31:31m]:
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Topics in this week’s show include:
- Tiger’s Song. I predict he will play in the Master’s this year.
- Scary movies: Food, Inc. (on DVD) and Collapse (not yet on DVD)
- What would be the impact of runaway inflation on stock prices?
- Tool: EzBacktest Needs the ability to measure risk and not just returns.
- Can we do just a little bit better than the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio? How about using IFA Index Portfolio 25 for the stocks, bonds, and cash portion?
- Guru: Paul Samuelson (flashback to show 52) and read the requiem.
- Hook up with Mad Money Machine at Facebook
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December 6th, 2009 at 11:22 am
Tiger Woods reads Physics book. Santa Got a Bailout. GoogleFinance’s closeyest attribute. Guru is Charles Goyette and his book Dollar Meltdown.
The Dollar Meltdown [28:28m]:
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Topics in this week’s show include:
- Song: Our Winter Wonderland from Sunshine Collective.
- Tiger Woods reading a Physics book?
- TOOL: =GoogleFinance(symb, “closeyest”)
- Song: Santa Got a Bailout from Eddy Delbridge
- GURU: Charles Goyette and his book The Dollar Meltdown
- We are entering Tax-Loss Harvest season
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- Take the MMM Survey
Music from MusicAlley.com:
November 19th, 2009 at 11:41 am
Twenty hours in the woods. The Lost Symbol. The Lost Voice. Q-School. Gerald Celente. V. Big Break. Matrix. Mad Max.
MMM-169: The Deer Hunter [33:39m]:
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Topics in this week’s show include:
- My tale of the invisible deer.
- Dan Brown’s The Lost Symbol
- My Lost Voice
- Tiger wins a golf tournament.
- It is Q-School season.
- TOOL: Deer Hunter
- GURU: Gerald Celente
- V, The Big Break, Matrix, Mad Max
- Berkshire B to spit 50:1. Wanna buy 49?
Got Feedback? Try any one of these methods:
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November 11th, 2009 at 2:49 pm
Cramer’s 12 Stocks to Play in Recovery. Carry Trade and You. Wegman’s. Vitamin D3. Phil’s whiff.
MMM-168: Carry Trade [21:22m]:
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Topics in this week’s show include:
- Cramer’s 12 Stocks to play in the Recovery. From his book Getting Back to Even and from his web site (google it). Follow the portfolio in Icarra.
- Carry Trade. When dollar stops falling, watch out, says Roubini. Karl says there is a direct inverse correlation between the dollar index and the S&P 500 index.
- Wegman’s
- Vitamin D3
- Phil’s Whiff.
Got Feedback? Try any one of these methods:
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- Take the MMM Survey
November 3rd, 2009 at 6:26 pm
CNBC viewership plunges. Golf is like investing. Investing is like golf. TOOLS I use daily. New China ETF. GURU Jim Rogers.
MMM-167: Mad Golfing Machine [30:44m]:
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Topics in this week’s show include:
- CNBC Viewership PLUNGES y/o/y in October
- Golf is like investing. Investing is like golf.
- TOOLS: Bloomberg, Kitco Gold, Wunderground, PGA Tour, SportsTap, GolfShot all for iPhone and then the Dollar Index chart.
- AlphaShares launches China All-Cap Index and Claymore announces a matching ETF with symbol YAO
- GURU: Jim Rogers Bullish on China. Bearish on Bernanke. Bullish on Commodities. Bearish on the Dollar.
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October 14th, 2009 at 12:06 pm
A review of Lazy Portfolio performance. Excuses of why no show. Atlas Shrugged review and excerpt. Inclined to Liberty excerpt. Would they call Neo a kook? Is FRB evil?
MMM-166: Excuses [31:54m]:
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Topics in this week’s show include:
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August 24th, 2009 at 7:22 pm
Economic Revival! Spitzer says it is a Chumps Game. Trapster. GolfShot. $1 an hour? Along for the Ride. An update on the Lazy Portfolios.
MMM-165: It's Not Nice to Fool Mother Nature [28:34m]:
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Topics in this week’s show include:
- It’s all fun and games until someone gets their eye poked out.
- GURU: Elliot Spitzer writes in Slate: Still A Chumps Game.
- TOOL: Trapster for the iPhone
- TOOL: GolfShot for the iPhone
- Would you accept $1 an hour to work at a car wash?
- It’s not nice to fool Mother Nature!
- Danny O’Keefe: Along for the Ride
- Coastline covers it too.
- Lazy Portfolios are on a tear for 2009!
Got Feedback? Try any one of these methods:
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- Take the MMM Survey
August 10th, 2009 at 8:41 pm
Google Chrome OS. Golf, Tiger, PGA Championship, PGA iPhone App. Driver vs 3-wood. Back pain. Glen Echo Park. Why have stocks risen so much since March? I have the answer. Apple Mac Tablet.
MMM-164: Inflated Stocks [29:26m]:
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Topics in this week’s show include:
- Google Chrome OS
- Golf, Tiger Woods, PGA Championship and iPhone app
- Water hazards, lateral water hazards, and where to drop. See rulesofgolf.com rule 26.
- Driver vs. 3-Wood
- Hitting driver off concrete sure hurt my back.
- Visit Glen Echo Park. Neat Art Deco styles. Visit Paul at the glassblower building.
- Why have stocks risen so much since March? I have the answer.
- Apple’s new Mac Tablet computer.
- Two iPhone Apps I wanted to write.
Got Feedback? Try any one of these methods:
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- voicemail: 571-366-7121
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- Take the MMM Survey
But, if you just cannot deal with that then go ahead and Play the new show right now
